Threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and is the sole sea passage from the Gulf to the open ocean, is having the biggest impact on pricing pressures. Nearly 20 percent of global oil supply moves through that chokepoint, and although the waterway is not physically blocked, threats of attack and insurance disruptions have pushed many tankers to avoid it. That’s causing a shortage that is increasing prices at the pump — both for drivers and airlines. The International Air Transport Association’s latest fuel monitor said the global average jet fuel price rose 11.2 percent week over week to $175 per barrel.
Business Insider reports that Scandinavian Airlines has introduced temporary fuel-related price adjustments and targeted capacity cuts, Air India is rolling out fuel surcharges, and Air France-KLM is raising long-haul fares for newly issued tickets. Thai Airways has also said fares are rising by 10 to 15 percent, citing both fuel costs and overwhelming demand.
Travelers in the United States may experience the same pressure in a less obvious form. American airlines generally do not impose separate fuel surcharges the way some overseas carriers do. Instead, they are more likely to bake higher fuel costs into base fares, ancillary fees, or schedule decisions. That means travelers shopping for flights may not see a line item labeled “fuel,” but they may still pay more, especially for international itineraries that require more fuel burn or more circuitous routing due to no-fly zones put in place around conflict zones. The AP also notes that long-haul routes are likely to feel the impact first, while carriers may trim schedules or reduce certain routes if elevated fuel prices persist.
According to the Washington Post, booking early before further price increases show up could be a way to save money on travel.
Some airlines are suggesting that there may be ways to avoid drastically raising prices. Delta, American, and United all told investors this week that strong ticket sales are offsetting hundreds of millions of dollars in added fuel expense. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said the fuel spike has added roughly $400 million in costs so far, while executives at American and United described similar financial pressure. At the same time, all three carriers said bookings remain strong, with record sales periods this year.
High demand for flights may be increasing costs along with fuel costs, in other words.
There are other reasons to be cautious about overstating the near-term consumer hit. Some airlines hedge fuel, locking in prices months or even years in advance, which can soften the blow of a sudden spike, at least temporarily. And the EIA’s forecast does not assume an endless climb in oil prices.
There is also broader inflation context worth noting. Before the latest fuel spike fully hit, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the airline fares index had already risen 1.4 percent in February. That does not mean the current surge was already showing up in ticket prices, but it does underscore that airfare pricing is shaped by several forces at once, including seasonality, capacity, route demand, and carrier strategy.
For travelers, the practical takeaway is straightforward even if the market is not. If fuel prices stay elevated into the summer booking window, airfares are likely to keep climbing, especially on long-haul international routes. But the size and speed of those increases will depend on how long oil remains volatile, how aggressively airlines decide to pass costs through, and whether strong demand gives them room to charge more.
Right now, the pressure on fares is real. 