Is traveling to Mexico dangerous?

By Julie Schwietert On April 20, 2009 · 17 Comments

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For the past few months, the US media have been obsessed with violence in Mexico.

From FOX to NPR, the evening news has been awash with reports of blood-splashed streets, out of control crime stats, and a police force so impotent that federal military intervention is required.

It’s frightening stuff, alright, so much so that lots of travelers have changed or canceled their Mexico travel plans. People have even formed organizations calling for travel boycotts.

But outside of the drug-running hotspots of Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez, is traveling to Mexico really dangerous?

We talked to some frequent Mexico travelers and looked at some data to answer that question.

Matador contributor Misty Tosh is a regular visitor to Mexico. She hosts annual retreats on Isla de Mujeres and has driven Baja–alone–a dozen times. She recently wrote:

“I cruised down extremely dusty backroads, took precarious routes along the Sierra Madre’s, and swam along lonesome stretches of sandy beaches. Never did I fear for my life. Not once did I think I was gonna catch some trouble cause I was alone. Stay away from Mexico? As if. You’d be crazy if ya did.”

Travel writer Eric Lucas, who has had his passport stamped in Mexico more than 25 times, also travels south feeling at ease. In response to the travel boycott, he had this to say:

“Actually, it’s safer there than here. For example, the murder rate in Mexico is about 11 per 100,000 people a year. In New Orleans, it’s almost seven times worse, 71 per 100,000. Atlanta, Cleveland, St. Louis—all have higher murder rates than Mexico.”

Eric’s correct. As author David Lida–an American expat living in Mexico City for almost 20 years–explained in his excellent book, First Stop in the New World:

“In 2004, there were 710 homicides in Mexico City, as opposed to 218 in Washington, D.C. Yet there are close to twenty million people in Mexico City and only 572,000 in the U.s. capital. Therefore, your likelihood to get murdered in D.C. is far greater than it is here–equally true in many U.S. cities, among them Detroit, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Phoenix, Dallas, and Las Vegas (according to 2004 statistics from the FBI). In 2006, New Orleans…with a population smaller than 1 percent of Mexico City’s–had a murder rate nearly equal to the D.F.”

Lida concludes that the persistent problem with the portrayal of violence in Mexico is one of misinterpretation and lack of contextualization. 710 homicides sounds like a lot… if you’re not considering total population and if you’re comparing that statistic to the statistics of a city with a significantly lower population. Tens of thousands of travelers go on all inclusive holidays to Mexico each year experiencing no crime whatsoever.

Mexico isn’t crime-free, but neither is the US. Yet if we focus enough on our neighbor to the south, maybe we’ll distract ourselves from our own problems. And perhaps that’s what’s really behind the sudden obsession with Mexico’s crime.

Photo: Gret@Lorenz

So don’t cancel that Mexico trip. Unless you’re planning on Spring Break in Juarez, you’re just as likely to be as safe in Mexico as you are in your own home town.

About The Author

Julie Schwietert

Julie Schwietert Collazo is a writer, editor, researcher, and translator currently in New York, formerly of Mexico City and San Juan. She is Matador's managing editor and is the lead faculty member of MatadorU's travel writing program.

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Travellohr

I think the main reason the media is so focused on the Mexican crime wave is not just because of the large number of murders but the gruesomeness involved – meaning the many beheadings. If people were just getting shot in the streets, I wonder if the media would be so latched onto this.
http://wayworded.blogspot.com/ Hal

Can’t speak for up north, but as you know, Julie, my five weeks in the DF last fall were stellar. No trouble in the underestimated tourist destination of Mexico City!
http://collazoprojects.com/ Julie Schwietert

@Travellohr:

Perhaps you’re right, but I still think that focusing on the gruesomeness without examining who, exactly, the victims are, perpetuates a fear among travelers that’s unfounded.

I lived in Mexico City for at least part of the year for the past two years and I learned that many of the crimes committed in Mexico that are obsessed about in the US and which affect people’s travel plans are not crimes that affect travelers directly. Does that mean those crimes and their gruesomeness should be ignored? Definitely not.

But I think it’s important to note that the people who are crime victims in Mexico (at least in the stories presented in the US press) are often targeted because of their known wealth, their own involvement in drug trafficking or other activities, or because of their position in society. Travelers are not victimizers’ interests.
http://travelojos.com/ Steven Roll

Mexico is often portrayed by the news media as being in a state of complete turmoil. I disagree with this assessment. Besides refuting this inaccurate characterization on Travelojos, I’ve booked a family vacation to Guadalajara in June.

Have you seen this week’s edition of Businessweek? It’s about the “Other Mexico.” The Mexico where companies are investing billions of dollars in factories. Many companies are finding it more economical to have their manufacturing done in Mexico than in China. Do you think they would be making that decision if the country was on the verge of being a failed state?
Travellohr

@Julie – I agree the spate of murders shouldn’t be ignored. The US media coverage though, is making some people fearful for no reason since – you’re right – it’s about drugs, not tourists.

Along another vein, maybe the Mexican gov’t is taking steps to ensure tourists remain safe. If they lost their tourism income because of this, that could be devastating. I’m going next month and am planning on hanging out by myself part of the time. I’m going to touristy areas, though, and I know I have nothing to fear (outside of the ordinary).
http://www.huevosalamexicana.com Sarah

Hey Julie–

Thanks for a great article. It’s amazing how manipulative statistics can be–yes, thousands of people have been killed in Mexico’s “drug war”–and the vast, vast majority of them are affiliated either with drug cartels or with the corrupt government, and have been killed as part of payback for that–this is not to justify those murders at all, but merely to put the violence in context.

I was talking to my dad about this issue (he came down to visit me when I was living in Oaxaca) and he was saying how on his visits to Cleveland (he had to organize a big health study with a hospital there) the doctors told him not to walk on certain parts of certain streets or he would be shot/knifed by gangs. That kind of stuff does not happen in Oaxaca. But the U.S media, as always, would prefer to sensationalize danger abroad as opposed to zeroing in on the U.S’ appalling crime rates.
John

But there is one problem. In order to get into Mexico you have to drive through the border towns. This is, of course, assuming you are traveling by motorcycle through Mexico.
http://www.escapenewyork.blogspot.com Wendy-Escape NY

I just got back a few weeks ago from Mexico and was interested to see what the take was there versus the more shrill U.S. mainstream press. While the drug war is serious, it’s a big country and tourists would be unlikely to go to the effected areas. If there was gang warfare in Los Angeles there would be no point in canceling a trip to San Diego, for example. It’s also a great time to go as the exchange rate is favorable (about 13 pesos to the dollar). I love Mexico and travel there about once a year.
http://matadornetwork.com Ross

Great analysis! I agree that if you stay away from the border towns, you’re going to be fine. And the prices are cheaper now as the result! Love it when people’s unwarranted fear make my travel expenses drop
http://www.authenticcoppercanyon.com Dave hensleigh

Thanks so much…I have been blogging about this on aithenticcoppercanyon on wordpress…I go there every month and the safety issue incountry is a nonissue.

The victims are the good mexican people who are trying to go on with life and are wondering where the norteamericanos are.
http://desdemisojos-kenasiu.blogspot.com/ KenaSiu

This is a great news, because of your note and also because of the comments.
I am Mexican and is good to know that people in the US know how the media manipulates this situation (not to mention others). Mexico is a great country and quite big, saying this, most of its places are safe. They are few cities were the crime is taking place and as mentioned before in one of the comments it is about the same drug dealers and corrupted police officers the ones getting killed, pay back!
Mexico is considered the main problem, but also think about the cartels in Mexico that have to do with cartels in the rest of Latin America and probably some other countries out of the American continent.
A funny thing is that is always mentioned the mafia in Mexico, but the main drug consumers are not Mexicans, are Americans, so why is never mentioned the mafia in US, who receives the drugs, who buys them?. Again… press!
Not all the borders cities in the south border are dangerous, only a few.
Thanks Julie for this excellent post.
Alejandra Ruybal

Excellent article! Mexico has gotten a bad rap lately, and unfortunately most of the fuss is all hype. WIth the Peso down 30% it’s like the entire country is on sale! Now is a great time to go south.
http://www.thehotelofyourdreams.com Alejandra Ruybal

Hi everyone! I just booked my winter travel plans to Los Cabos, Baja California. With the state of the economy, lots of hotels are offering huge discounts for people looking to travel to Mexico. One of my favorite chains, Barcelo (Spain) is offering an incredible deal where anyone can get up to 20% off any reservation. The Barcelo hotel in Cabo is under construction, with an opening date of December 1 – if anyone is thinking about going to Cabo, this promotion really is a great way to save some money. Just go to http://www.thehotelofyourdreams.com and write a review of what kind of hotel room you would like to stay in. Hopefully see some people down Mexico way!
http://matadortravel.com/travel-community/newnomads Diane

Thank you for such a great article on Mexico. We live within sight of the border and cross frequently to travel and even just to go for dinner. Mexico is a wonderful country and Mexicans are some of the most gracious people in the world! We are going to San Miguel de Allende and GuanaJuato in two weeks and are planning to drive the length of Baja sometime later this year.
I am sad to see the hardships the lowered peso has brought to the people of Mexico but for outsiders there has never been a more economical time to visit!
http://www.walkwithoutpain.com.au Sandy Brisbane

Queer as it may seem, I think I would be ok with my daughter traveling there (she is 35 now and settled down but traveled a lot in her 20′s). My big. burly son, however, would keep me awake at night. He’s more of a risk taker. He chose instead to go to the Commonwealth Games in India this month.
Garland

“Lida concludes that the persistent problem with the portrayal of violence in Mexico is one of misinterpretation and lack of contextualization. 710 homicides sounds like a lot… if you’re not considering total population and if you’re comparing that statistic to the statistics of a city with a significantly lower population.”

Hi Julie,

This doesn’t make a lot of sense. Why would you compare the murder rate (note: ‘rate’) of one city to another over ten times larger? Why would you compare tiny cities with a huge country like Mexico? It’s completely biased, and meaningless. We could turn that around and say that street in gargantuan Mexico City has a higher murder rate than DC.

Washington has 5 million people Julie, not 500,000. Lida is the one taking the figures out of context, not the people saying Mexico City is more dangerous.

Why have the suburbs been left off the US cities’ numbers? It’s interesting US cities’ murder rates supposedly higher than Mexico City have been attributed to the FBI because the FBI only give out murder rates (and specifically warn against not doing this) for cities including their suburbs.

2004 and 2009 murder rates for US cities, Mexico City and Mexico:

New Orleans, 25.5 per 100,000 (2004) | 21.4 per 100,000 (2009)
Detroit, 10.0 per 100,000 (2004) | 10.1 per 100,000 (2009)
St. Louis, 7.4 per 100,000 (2004 and 2009)
Philadelphia, N/A (2004) | 7.3 per 100,000 (2009)
Las Vegas, 9.3 per 100,000 (2004) | 7.0 per 100,000 (2009)
Washington, 7.9 per 100,000 (2004) | 6.0 per 100,000 (2009)
Atlanta, 8.1 per 100,000 (2004) | 5.9 per 100,000 (2009)
Cleveland, N/A (2004) | 5.8 per 100,000 (2009)
Phoenix, 8.0 per 100,000 (2004) | 5.3 per 100,000 (2009)
Dallas, 7.3 per 100,000 (2004) | 4.8 per 100,000 (2009)
New York, 5.0 per 100,000 (2004) | 4.1 per 100,000 (2009)
Mexico City, 12.4 per 100,000 (2004) | N/A AFAIK (2009)
Mexico, 11.0 per 100,000 (2004) | 15.0 per 100,000 (2009)

http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/offenses_reported/offense_tabulations/table_06.html

http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/data/table_06.html

http://www.flacso.cl/getFile.php?file=file_4b4b8765a200c.pdf

http://world-gazetteer.com/wg.php?x=&men=gadm&lng=en&des=wg&geo=-151&srt=npan&col=abcdefghinoq&msz=1500

http://www.icesi.org.mx/documentos/estadisticas/estadisticasOfi/denuncias_homicidio_doloso_1997_2009.pdf

Mexico City definition in the first Mexican link consists of Distrito Federal and Mexico state lumped together. Hence the additional gazetteer link for Mexican subdivisions which I calculated the rate from which wasn’t available, only absolute murders were listed (used the 2000 census figures). There may be a different definition for Mexico City in the last link as it’s a different source, which is why I haven’t just tacked those two states together for 2009.

So much for the argument that many US cities have a higher murder rate than Mexico, only the tiny sliver that is New Orleans has a higher rate than the entire national average – yet is still only half that of comparable Tijuana. Mexico City has a higher murder rate than all US cities, again, with the exception of New Orleans. Not that the two are remotely comparable which is why I put New York in, the only US city directly comparable to Mexico City.
Alicel Driver

I am a U.S. citizen living and working in Mexico City at a human rights organization, and I recently traveled to Ciudad Juárez for my dissertation research. Although I agree with the spirit of the article, that travelers should continue to visit Mexico, I do not agree with how the information has been presented. Official statistics state that 40,000 people have been killed in the “drug war” since President Calderón took office in 2006. The violence is real; it is not an invention of the U.S. media. It is not limited to Tijuana and Juárez. Anyone who travels to Mexico and ventures outside of tourist meccas or resorts will see the daily toll that the violence takes on individuals and communities. To pretend that this violence does not exist or that it is an invention of the U.S. media or that it is similar to violence in U.S. cities is a lie. To pretend that it is limited to only criminals is also a lie. Yes, luckily U.S. citizens are rarely victims of violence (although U.S. murders in Mexico are up 200% this year). Encourage people to travel, but don’t do it by writing a Pollyana version of what is going on.

Is traveling to Mexico dangerous?

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