Down the cybernetic rabbit hole we go. Photo by Harold Hoyer.
****This post is brought to you in partnership between Matador and our friends at Intel. Join us in the conversation on Twitter with #IntelEMP.
WHEN LOOKING AT THE present as an indication of where we’ll stand a year from now–much less a decade–feeling optimistic may not come easy. We look out to the universe and see an infinite, lifeless abyss enfolding upon our own small pocket of civilization, while the people we look to for guidance and information seem to be little more than straight-faced bearers of bad news.
Yet while we can’t predict what the future holds for our unending political discourses, we can look at how far we’ve come with technology in merely the last decade and realize the present we know now will, very soon, find itself memorialized in nostalgia. Here’s some technology emerging down the road that’s poised to change your life on a much greater scale than any outcome of a political debate.
2012
Ultrabooks – The last two years have been all about the tablet. Laptops, with their “untouchable” screens, have yet to match any tablet’s featherweight portability and zippy response times. However, by next year, ultraportable notebooks–Ultrabooks–will finally be available for under $1000, bringing a complete computing experience into areas of life which, until now, have only been partially filled by smaller technologies such as tablets and smartphones. They weigh around three pounds, measure less than an inch thick, and the hard drives are flash-based, which means they’ll have no moving parts, delivering zippy-quick startups and load times.
The Mars Science Laboratory – By August 2012, the next mission to Mars will reach the Martian surface with a new rover named Curiosity focusing on whether Mars could ever have supported life, and whether it might be able to in the future. Curiosity will be more than 5 times larger than the previous Mars rover, and the mission will cost around $2.3 billion — or just about one and a half New Yankee Stadiums.
The Brain Cap, from U of Maryland.
The paralyzed will walk. But, perhaps not in the way that you’d imagine. Using a machine-brain interface, researchers are making it possible for otherwise paralyzed humans to control neuroprostheses–essentially mechanical limbs that respond to human thought–allowing them to walk and regain bodily control. The same systems are also being developed for the military, which one can only assume means this project won’t flounder due to a lack of funding.
2013
The Rise of Electronic Paper – Right now, e-paper is pretty much only used in e-readers like the Kindle, but it’s something researchers everywhere are eager to expand upon. Full-color video integration is the obvious next step, and as tablet prices fall, it’s likely newspapers will soon be fully eradicated from their current form. The good news: less deforestation, and more user control over your sources.
4G will be the new standard in cell phone networks. What this means: your phone will download data about as fast as your home computer can. While you’ve probably seen lots of 4G banter from the big cell providers, it’s not very widely available in most phones. However, both Verizon and the EU intend to do away with 3G entirely by 2013, which will essentially bring broadband-level speeds to wireless devices on cell networks. It won’t do away with standard internet providers, but it will bring “worldwide WiFi” capabilities to anyone with a 4G data plan.
The Eye of Gaia, a billion-pixel telescope will be sent into space this year to begin photographing and mapping the universe on a scale that was recently impossible. With the human eye, one can see several thousand stars on a clear night; Gaia will observe more than a billion over the course of its mission–about 1% of all the stars in the Milky Way. As well, it will look far beyond our own galaxy, even as far as the end of the (observable) universe.
2014
A 1 Terabyte SD Memory Card probably seems like an impossibly unnecessary technological investment. Many computers still don’t come with that much memory, much less SD memory cards that fit in your digital camera. Yet thanks to Moore’s Law we can expect that the 1TB SD card will become commonplace in 2014, and increasingly necessary given the much larger swaths of data and information that we’re constantly exchanging every day (thanks to technologies like memristors and our increasing ever-connectedness). The only disruptive factor here could be the rise of cloud-computing, but as data and transfer speeds continue to rise, it’s inevitable that we’ll need a physical place to store our digital stuff.
The first around-the-world flight by a solar-powered plane will be accomplished by now, bringing truly clean energy to air transportation for the first time. Consumer models are still far down the road, but you don’t need to let your imagination wander too far to figure out that this is definitely a game-changer. Consider this: it took humans quite a few milennia to figure out how to fly; and only a fraction of that time to do it with solar power.
The Solar Impulse, to be flown around the world. Photo by Stephanie Booth
The world’s most advanced polar icebreaker is currently being developed as a part of the EU’s scientific development goals and is scheduled to launch in 2014. As global average temperatures continue to climb, an understanding and diligence to the polar regions will be essential to monitoring the rapidly changing climates–and this icebreaker will be up to the task.
$100 personal DNA sequencing is what’s being promised by a company called BioNanomatrix, which the company founder Han Cao has made possible through his invention of the ‘nanofluidic chip.’ What this means: by being able to cheaply sequence your individual genome, a doctor could biopsy a tumor, sequence the DNA, and use that information to determine a prognosis and prescribe treatment for less than the cost of a modern-day x-ray. And by specifically inspecting the cancer’s DNA, treatment can be applied with far more specific–and effective–accuracy.
2015
The world’s first zero-carbon, sustainable city in the form of Masdar City will be initially completed just outside of Abu Dhabi. The city will derive power solely from solar and other renewable resources, offer homes to more than 50,000 people.
Personal 3D Printing is currently reserved for those with extremely large bank accounts or equally large understandings about 3D printing; but by 2015, printing in three dimensions (essentially personal manufacturing) will become a common practice in the household and in schools. Current affordable solutions include do-it-yourself kits like Makerbot, but in four years it should look more like a compact version of the uPrint. Eventually, this technology could lead to technologies such as nanofabricators and matter replicators–but not for at least a few decades.
2016
Space tourism will hit the mainstream. Well, sorta. Right now it costs around $20-30 million to blast off and chill at the International Space Station, or $200,000 for a sub-orbital spaceflight from Virgin Galactic. But the market is growing faster than most realize: within five years, companies like Space Island, Galactic Suite, and Orbital Technologies may realize their company missions, with space tourism packages ranging from $10,000 up-and-backs to $1 million five-night stays in an orbiting hotel suite.
The sunscreen pill will hit the market, protecting the skin as well as the eyes from UV rays. By reverse-engineering the way coral reefs shield themselves from the sun, scientists are very optimistic about the possibility, much to the dismay of sunscreen producers everywhere.
Back from extinction. Image by JenJeff.
A Wooly Mammoth will be reborn among other now-extinct animals in 2016, assuming all goes according to the current plans of Japan’s Riken Center for Developmental Biology. If they can pull it off, expect long lines at Animal Kingdom.
2017
Portable laser pens that can seal wounds – Imagine you’re hiking fifty miles from the nearest human, and you slip, busting your knee wide open, gushing blood. Today, you might stand a chance of some serious blood loss–but in less than a decade you might be carrying a portable laser pen capable of sealing you back up Wolverine-style.
2018
Light Peak technology, a method of super-high-data-transfer, will enable more than 100 Gigabytes per second–and eventually whole terabytes per second–within everyday consumer electronics. This enables the copying of entire hard drives in a matter of seconds, although by this time the standard hard drive is probably well over 2TB.
Insect-sized robot spies aren’t far off from becoming a reality, with the military currently hard at work to bring Mission Impossible-sized tech to the espionage playground. Secret weapon: immune to bug spray.
2019
The average PC has the power of the human brain. According to Ray Kurzweil, who has a better grip on the future than probably anyone else, the Law of Accelerating Returns will usher in an exponentially greater amount of computing power than every before.
The Web Within Us. Image by Anna Lena Schiller.
Web 3.0 – What will it look like? Is it already here? It’s always difficult to tell just where we stand in terms of technological chronology. But if we assume that Web 1.0 was based only upon hyperlinks, and Web 2.0 is based on the social, person-to-person sharing of links, then Web 3.0 uses a combination of socially-sourced information, curated by a highly refined, personalizable algorithm (“they” call it the Semantic Web). We’re already in the midst of it, but it’s still far from its full potential.
Energy from a fusion reactor has always seemed just out of reach. It’s essentially the process of producing infinite energy from a tiny amount of resources, but it requires a machine that can contain a reaction that occurs at over 125,000,000 degrees. However, right now in southern France, the fusion reactor of the future is being built to power up by 2019, with estimates of full-scale fusion power available by 2030.
2020
Crash-proof cars have been promised by Volvo, to be made possible by using radar, sonar, and driver alert systems. Considering automobile crashes kill over 30,000 people in the U.S. per year, this is definitely a welcome technology.
2021
So, what should we expect in 2021? Well, 10 years ago, what did you expect to see now? Did you expect the word “Friend” to become a verb? Did you expect your twelve-year-old brother to stay up texting until 2am? Did you expect 140-character messaging systems enabling widespread revolutions against decades-old dictatorial regimes?
The next 10 years will be an era of unprecedented connectivity; this much we know. It will build upon the social networks, both real and virtual, that we’ve all played a role in constructing, bringing ideas together that would have otherwise remained distant, unknown strangers. Without twitter and a steady drip of mainstream media, would we have ever so strongly felt the presence of the Arab Spring? What laughs, gasps, or loves, however fleeting, would have been lost if not for Chatroulette? Keeping in mind that as our connections grow wider and more intimate, so too will the frequency of our connectedness, and as such, your own understanding of just what kinds of relationships are possible will be stretched and revolutionized as much as any piece of hardware.
Truly, the biggest changes we’ll face will not come in the form of any visible technology; the changes that matter most, as they always have, will occur in those places we know best but can never quite see: our own hearts and minds. 
****This post is brought to you in partnership between Matador and our friends at Intel, whose technology enables so much of the lifestyle in which we thrive. Join us in the conversation on Twitter with #IntelEMP.
Jason Wire
Jason Wire graduated from Vanderbilt University in 2010 and spent the year after writing and teaching English in Spain. He's back in the states now, but doesn't know where. Follow him @wirejr.
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All of these will be developed by Skynet! Noooooo, hahaha
lol. i am off wednesday and thursday doggie
We wont have to worry about natural disaster or flying cars or any of it, and no I’m not a Terminator junky worried about the robots taking over. no, I’m a Hoovian (anyone?) and as soon as physically freaking possible, the whole damn population is going up and out, at least I know I am. I mean if a telescope can see the edge of the ‘(observable)’ universe, then why not go see it with your own eyes, we have cryo-technology, and the fusion generator. I’m guessing that (pessimistically) 2045 and optomistically 2033, we are putting those together with a mod version of volvo’s drive it yourself system and piloting hundreds of lightyears away to colonize the whole lot of it. then we just need to explore beyond the observable universe (i.e. other dimensions)
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funny seeing you here
p.s. I’m not british.
all this….and still no cure for cancer.
2015 hoverboards will be invented.
I’m still waiting for a light saber.
Where’s my hover board.
“The world’s most advanced polar icebreaker is currently being developed as a part of the EU’s scientific development goals and is scheduled to launch in 2014. As global average temperatures continue to climb, an understanding and diligence to the polar regions will be essential to monitoring the rapidly changing climates–and this icebreaker will be up to the task.”
Errrmmm! If the globe is warming as you make claim, even though the British Met. Office have just stated that the Earth has not warmed for the last 15 years. Would that not make an Icebreaker superfluous?
As there will be no ice left to break!
If we could all stop fighting over resources and abandon religion perhaps we can really start to progress as a species.
Strange, all this talk of progress. When we know so little of where we’re progressing toward. A community based on science as truth and guiding light; the new religion, don’t you agree? Even so, searching for the final answer written in the stars beats being told that it can only be read in a Book. Haha! The irony!
I think progress is always happening. It’s kind of inevitable: when we don’t adapt we end up destroying ourselves.
what if religion is all there is to be resource full of , while resources prove irrelevant beyond belief they might be worth fighting for ?
When I planted those fruit loops last month I expected them to blossom int doughnut trees. I’m starting to think that won’t happen either…
I was thinking the same thing. Though the U.S. wasn’t the only country with a space program, I still find the expected space missions to be ludicrous. Although, it’s not like everything else seems plausible. I’m just surprised no one is questioning the space-related “goals”
Yeah, yeah. Wake me up when they can print edible sausage.
Yeah, you’d like that, wouldn’t you, you fat ignorant stumbling Schwuchtel Sie!
See article below under futurism.
Science is not a religion. Religions rely on their followers to have faith in what they can’t prove. Science only asks that you believe what the facts are at the moment, and feel free to challenge them if you will. For unlike religion, if you can prove a scientific fact to be incorrect, then the science changes. As Isaac Asimov said ” The most exciting phrase to hear in science is not ‘Eurkea!’ (I found it!) but ‘That’s funny…”
Ohhhh snap, you just got owned by Heywood. How does it feel? HOW DOES IT FEEL?!?!?
[Heywood] You are basing this argument on a flawed idea of science. There are myriad problems with calling science “proveable.” I’ll give you just one: have you ever seen an electron? The answer: no, no one has ever seen an electron. We assume that these things called electrons exist (because we have instruments that tell us they do), and based on this fundamental axiom we can then use logic (usually in the form of math) to “prove” other things. But at its core science is based on unproveable axioms just as much as religion is. The entire Standard Model of Quantum Mechanics is based on the existence of the so called “God particle” — the Higgs Boson — which has NEVER been observed to exist. So how can we say that science is “truth” when the VAST MAJORITY of it is based on statistical models and approximations? We ASSUME that the speed of light is the ultimate and maximum speed limit of the universe (this comes from Einstein’s theory of General Relativity) and yet we cannot PROVE it to be so, and even now we are getting data that suggests that this tenet of “science” long held by scientists might not be true (faster than light neutrinos, granted the data is sketchy).
The problem of science is that it is NOT fundamentally PROVEable, only DISproveable: You have to start with an assumption to get anywhere: for example, I assume that my senses give me accurate information as to the reality around me, and that the instruments I use to make measurements are doing what I think they’re doing and not just what I want them to be doing. Philosophers cannot even prove that there is more than one consciousness (see Solipsism), how can anyone say that we can PROVE that science is correct? I am an undergraduate senior studying Physics and Philosophy, I am an aspiring “scientist” and I truly believe that “science” (a catch phrase empty of any real meaning, I am more so referring to “the study of reality”) has a lot to teach us. I am not a religious person by any means whatsoever, and I used to consider myself atheist, but the more I study science and religions the more I understand that they are not fundamentally different. Both are descriptions of reality, they merely use different languages to describe it. You cannot merely abolish religion completely on the grounds that science is “better;” that would be unscientific! What you are doing is saying “there are certain people (who I refer to as “religious”) who are perfectly willing to accept whatever their priest tells them is the truth and THAT is religion, and we should get rid of that.” I wholeheartedly agree that people should not be so willing to accept on faith whatever someone tells them to be true. But you have to start with faith (your basic axioms) before you can develop any meaningful conception of Truth. The Buddha told his disciples, “do not believe anything that I say, go out and learn it to be true yourself.” A true scientist would never adopt such a narrow and minute view of reality as to say “I believe X and everything else should just be thrown out,” because the quest of the scientist is the same as the quest of the pious, to discover Truth and understand why we are able to say the words “I exist.”
I’m not trying to turn this into a pissing contest but religion is never going to disappear. It will always be around in some form or another. I’m not religious myself, but I do have the decency not to tell people their religion should be done away with or that its foolish, because that’s their own choice and right as a human being. I hate it so much whenever people tell me the things i believe in (or don’t believe in) are wrong that I wouldn’t want to do that to another human being because then I am no better than the crazy religious zealots. If we are ever going to progress as a race then we will have to learn to accept one another and stop trying to “wipe out” religion or lack thereof. Science and religion must exist in a healthy balance for the good of the human race. Another thing we need to realize is that religion doesn’t always correlate with ethics. There are good people who are religious and good people who aren’t religious; just as there are evil people who are religious and evil people who aren’t religious.
Also, i enjoyed the article.
Yes, but the majority of the brain is used for controlling heartbeat, moving arms, and physical things like that. You really only need to simulate the thinking part.
you literally just hit the nail on the head, why can’t there be more people like you?